October & Q3 2019 Update

This September followed the trends from the previous 4 years with sales volume falling off,
increasing the supply of listings. If we continue to track previous trends, we can expect
sales to spike up in October and early November.


This chart compares January through September sales to monthly active listings.
Across the top, I have computed the percentage of sales to listings. The trend lines
demonstrate that while sales have dropped off 16% since 2015, listings have increased by
29%. The percentage of sales compared with listings has dropped dramatically, from 65% in
2015 to 43% in 2019. This growth in listings compared with sales is a major reason why
home price appreciation has been slowing.
Since increasing by 9.9% in 2017, sales have decreased from 535 during the 3rd quarter
of 2017 to 527 in 2019. That represents a slight decrease of 1.5%.

While sales have been decreasing since 2017, active listings have been on the rise -
increasing by 29.2%.

The disparity in sales and listing trends has resulted in a significant increase in
inventory - from a 1.77 month's supply in 2017 to a 2.40 month's supply in 2019.
The number of days from listing to sale with all contingencies removed dropped from 55
days in 2017 to 47 days in 2018 then increased to 48 days in 2019.

With the exception of 2016, the aver- age sales price increased during Q3 from 2013 to
2018. In 2019, prices dropped by an average of 7.1%

Data appears to support the belief that inventory will continue to increase despite the
current low interest rates. As rates start to rise, and demand falls off, the rap- id
increase in home inventories will move us from our current seller's market into a
buyer's market.